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Vincent’s Blog | Stock Market, Stories, and Parallel Universes

Celine Herault A rebel, two generals, and their story Do you know the story of Francois Dominique Toussaint Louverture? He was a highly respected French general, a visionary rebel leader who established a free republic, and much more. Check your feelings while reading this remarkable true story as it is essential to know what chemicals are released to create your feelings. Yes, I want to show you something. There is a reason. Toussaint Louverture was born a Prince. His family …

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Vincent’s Blog | The Stock Market: Can you win big and repeat it?

Play to win. Repeat. Everybody likes to win. It is in our nature. The rush caused by winning is prodigious, especially if the winnings are significant. We either win due to luck or skill, or a combination of the two. Usually, when skills are equal amongst players, luck plays the deciding factor. Winning by sheer luck is satisfactory but poses an immediate challenge to the winner: “Can I repeat my win? Is this possible?”. Winning because of skill is much …

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Celine’s Blog | Trying To Time The Market? Why You Should Think Twice.

Celine Herault When we encounter crises like the current one induced by Covid-19, we all look for past reference points as they provide strong guidance as to what may or may not occur. This crisis is unprecedented in many ways and no single past event will allow us to predict what lies ahead. However, when it comes to market timing, we think that the above graph of the Dow Jones index during the 1929-1932 bear market, is humbling and a …

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Vincent’s Blog | Pandemic and Investing: A New Playbook

It’s not business; it is personal First and foremost, a shout out to all the sung and unsung heroes fighting an enemy that concerns all of us. We know that, statistically, heroes always rise to a challenge but we don’t always know who and where you are. You make all of us look better and you have our respect and support. During the first quarter of 2020, we were able to limit our clients’ losses between -3.9% and -11.8% (depending …

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Vincent’s Blog | Tall Tales and Long Tails in the Stockmarket

It is a windy and cold day in New York City and I am driving my cool new electric car down Broadway towards the downtown offices of J.P. Morgan where I have a meeting to discuss Investment Trust Funds, an investment vehicle that has become so popular that Goldman Sachs & Co launched a separate company, the Goldman Sachs Trading Corp, to sell an unprecedented amount of Investment Trust shares to the public. Never mind most of them are sold …

Vincent’s Blog | Q3 2019 Update – Up-Down, Up-Down

i-Cthru’s consolidated time-weighted return over Q3 2019 is USD 0.23%; EUR 4.53% (YTD USD 4.52%; EUR 9.76%). These results are unleveraged, net of all trading costs, fees, dividend tax withholding for non-US clients and cost of protection of individual portfolio holdings. Phew, what a quarter, up – down, up – down, mostly driven by one-line “news” headlines. I hope you were not following every step during the last three months. Like an inexperienced free climber on El Capitan, Yosemite National …

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Vincent’s Blog | Serengeti, Silicon Valley and the Valley of Regret

Serengeti, located in Tanzania, Africa, bordering Kenya, is a place of unparalleled beauty. Abundant wildlife lives in one of the most productive ecosystems on earth and it is one of only two locations where hominid fossils, estimated to be more than 2 million years old, have been found, pointing to our very early beginnings as human sapiens. Some roving descendants of those early hominids made it through Asia, over the (frozen) Bering Straight into Silicon Valley, North America and onwards: an unbelievable …

Vincent’s Blog | Q2 2019 Update – Be Fearful when others are greedy

i-Cthru’s consolidated time-weighted return over Q2 2019 is USD 0.22%; EUR -0.98% (YTD USD 4.95%; EUR 5.92%). These results are unleveraged, net of all trading costs, fees, dividend tax withholding for non-US clients and cost of protection of individual portfolio holdings. “Be fearful when others are greedy” so say the wise. But it’s complicated, right? Just last December we saw a rather negative outlook on the equity markets with interests rates set to rise significantly as communicated by the Fed. …