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Vincent’s Blog | Humanity, Japan and Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)

The dead outnumber the living fourteen to one. Yes, this amounts to something like 100 billion people against 7.5 billion. And yet, we ignore the accumulated experience of such a large majority of humanity at our own peril. Since the development of the spoken word, the invention of the printing machine and “lately” of the Internet, you could argue that there is no excuse for large mistakes to be repeated because they are all “recorded” and their lessons “available”. Therefore, …

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Vincent’s blog | Finance: the Art of going with the Flow

I am dreaming. It is cold and dark. I must be in one of those ice-times. I have no clue why I dream about them or why these ice-times come and go, but it seems that every 100,000 years or so it gets very cold, almost like clockwork. It apparently has a lot to do with one of our astronomical cycles, which are much longer than our seasonal cycles. Our planet seems to be influenced by small cyclical changes in elliptical eccentricity, obliquity, axial …

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Vincent’s blog |Delta Echo Bravo Tango

Losing money is asymmetrical, as it feels proportionally so much worse than making a little, right? 2018 was, as opposed to 2017, a negative year and we feel the pain like a familiar punch in the stomach handed by the markets’ many humbling ways. Risk and uncertainty are part of the DNA of the equity markets and the likes of Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger have stated you should be willing to lose 50% if you are investing in the …

Vincent’s blog | Full Year 2018 Update

i-Cthru’s consolidated time weighted return for the Full Year 2018 is USD -12.6%; EUR -8.0%. This result is net of all trading costs, fees, dividend withholding tax for non-US clients and cost of protection of individual portfolio holdings. Do you know Australopithecus? Well, she is maybe not in your Instagram family/ friend circle or on WhatsApp, but you should look her up because she is likely your cousin albeit a very distant one. Australopithecus is very important to us because …

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Vincent’s blog | Q3 2018 update – Time waits for no one

i-Cthru’s consolidated time-weighted return over Q3 2018 is USD 1.93%; EUR 2.62%. This result is unleveraged, net of all trading costs, fees, dividend-tax withholding for non-US clients, and cost of protection of individual portfolio holdings. “Time waits for no one” – it is such a simple fact, but sometimes so complicated to comprehend. Everything we do seems to have an element of time in it and it is always humming along, unstoppable, uncontrollable and always moving forward with its atomic …

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Vincent’s blog | Financial Meditations

I am waking up very slowly; there is no alarm set for today. It is eerily quiet, just what I needed. I booked a boutique hotel for the weekend far away from it all, to recharge my body and mind. It has been hectic, and I felt it was time for a small break from the financial markets and never-ending news cycles: a time-out, unplugged from the connected world, so to speak. I look around my Philippe Starck designed hotel …

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Vincent’s blog | Know it all: stock market, knowledge, wisdom and happiness

It is 10:56 PM and it is freezing, but the January night is clear and beautiful in the moonlight above the eastern seaboard of the United States. I am getting ready for my midnight mission, which is to fly a “Big Ugly Fat Fellow” otherwise known as a B-52 or Stratofortress with a crew of eight and two MK-39 thermonuclear bombs. This will be a 25-hour non-stop patrol flight from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Goldsboro, N.C. We are …

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Vincent’s blog: Where do we go from here?

“A group of soldiers set out on a long navigation exercise in the Alps. The weather was severe and they got lost. After several days, with their desperation mounting, one of the men suddenly realized he had a map. They followed the map and managed to reach a town. When they returned to base and their commanding officer asked how they had made their way back, they replied, ‘We suddenly found a map.’ The officer looked at the map and …